AG1 battery!Optimistic about the performance of lithium battery materials, confirming growth and new fields and new technology sectors

Recently, we conducted a survey on companies in the lithium battery material industry chain and communicated with industry experts and companies. The feedback is as follows: ternary cathode materials have benefited from rapid sales growth and product structure improvements. According to the information we surveyed from car companies and battery pack companies, high-nickel ternary cathode materials such as NCM 622 and 811 have the advantages of high energy density and low cobalt cost. Due to factors such as cost and policy, they are expected to replace other cathode materials. . At present, NCM 811 cathode materials have been supplied to cylindrical battery manufacturers in China, and it is expected that prismatic batteries using NCM 811 will be mass-produced next year.

Recently, we conducted a survey on companies in the lithium battery material industry chain and communicated with industry experts and companies. The feedback is as follows: ternary cathode materials have benefited from rapid sales growth and product structure improvements. According to the information we surveyed from car companies and battery pack companies, high-nickel ternary cathode materials such as NCM622 and 811 have the advantages of high energy density and low cobalt cost. Due to factors such as cost and policy, they are expected to replace other cathode materials. At present, NCM811 cathode materials have been supplied to cylindrical battery manufacturers in China, and it is expected that prismatic batteries using NCM811 will be mass-produced next year. We estimate that the shipment growth rate of cathode materials this year is expected to exceed 25% to 300,000 tons, of which the shipment growth rate of ternary materials is expected to exceed 50% to 144,000 tons.

Diaphragm companies are increasing their coating layout, and new technologies are expected to offset the impact of diaphragm price cuts. Separator companies such as Shanghai Enjie and Xingyuan Materials have built separator coating production lines. Coatings such as ceramics and PVDF can help improve the puncture resistance and cycle consistency of the separator. Single-sided ceramic and single-sided PVDF coating will increase the selling price of the separator by 1 and 1.5 yuan/square meter respectively, and the gross profit margin will be approximately 30% respectively. with 50%. Ceramic coating technology has low barriers and its penetration rate in separator factories is expected to increase in the future. However, advanced coating technologies such as water/oil-based PVDF still have barriers and are only mastered by a few domestic and foreign companies, which is beneficial to hedging the impact of separator price cuts. , improve profitability.

It is expected that lithium battery orders will gradually improve in the second quarter. According to Gaogong Lithium Battery data, my country's power battery installed capacity in 1Q18 was 4.42Gwh, a year-on-year increase of 248%. According to the information from the lithium battery material suppliers we visited, some large companies in the power battery industry had weak orders in 1Q18 due to factors such as inventory digestion, and the production line load was only 50%. It is expected that lithium battery orders will gradually improve in 2Q18, and the production line load will gradually increase to 70% or 80%. success, which will help boost demand for lithium battery materials.

Performance determines growth and new fields and new technology sectors still have momentum. Due to the existence of the buffer period of this year's subsidy policy, we are optimistic that the sales of new energy vehicles will continue to grow strongly in the first half of the year, with full-year sales increasing 42% year-on-year to 1.1 million vehicles. The performance of cathode materials and other performance will definitely increase, while new areas such as aluminum-plastic films and new technology sectors will remain the same. If you are motivated, our investment recommendations for battery materials are sorted: positive electrode materials > aluminum plastic film > separator > electrolyte and negative electrode materials.

It is recommended to be optimistic about the growth of lithium battery materials and the new technology sector in new fields. Leading companies will win in the long term. We recommend Guoxuan High-tech, Xinlun Technology, etc. It is recommended to pay attention to Shanshan Shares, Dangsheng Technology, Innovation Shares (Enjie Diaphragm), and Putai Come and wait.

This article is excerpted from: China Finance Network